Arbitrage Media
Troy’s at “advanced” tennis camp, so Brian and Alex discuss the shifting dynamics of the newsletter and video game markets. Newsletters are entering into bubble territory, while parts of the video game market are losing ground after a long run of robust growth. Plus: an urban redevelopment good product.
Transcript
the
Brian:message from Troy?
Brian:He's at, he's at advanced tennis camp.
Brian:advanced.
Brian:He wanted to make sure that we knew that he was not just at tennis camp, but that he was at advanced
Alex:It says advanced aged tennis camp, maybe.
Brian:it's a cry for how anytime a middle aged man starts to like greatly improve at a sport, something's wrong.
Brian:This is a season of decline for that.
Alex:yeah, you should be slowing down.
Alex:I mean, he seems to, just as he's doing that, he seems to be requesting more and more from, from all of us.
Alex:And, he's excited about the podcast, and his little empire.
Alex:but here we are working while he's, at tennis camp,
Brian:that's okay.
Brian:This is, I do this, this is a passion,
Brian:I'm at a newsletter, marketing conference right now in Austin, Texas.
Brian:And,
Alex:I mean, it's pretty much like tennis camp then.
Brian:this is like tennis camp.
Brian:It's really fascinating to me because, you know, with, with how
Brian:the information ecosystem has changed quite a bit, that there is this.
Brian:There's an entirely different worlds that like, do not let that do not actually intersect.
Brian:Like the people here are mostly, I don't mean this in a bad way.
Brian:They're like information entrepreneurs.
Brian:the information, the content is not where they start.
Brian:It's like they are entrepreneurs and content just happens to be the
Brian:product that, that they're using, in their entrepreneurial activities.
Alex:Right.
Alex:It's just like a resource.
Alex:it's, it's a resource that they use to, to build a business around,
Brian:Yeah, you know what it reminds me of, it reminds me of DTC companies
Alex:Yeah.
Brian:when I started, like, you know, we started covering DTC companies at, at my old company, we had this,
Brian:publication that, that was in the fashion and beauty, and then another one in retail, and it focused on DTCA lot.
Brian:And the more I was like getting into them, I was like, these aren't product companies.
Brian:They're marketing like, and they would always come out of hb, out of Harvard Business School and you
Brian:know, all of a sudden they were like, oh, we're solving a problem.
Brian:But their core of what they did was not actually the product.
Brian:Everyone got the products from the same supply chains.
Brian:You can get them like made pretty
Alex:I mean, I have a confession to make.
Alex:And then I think for the longest time I really looked down on people like that because they did.
Alex:I come from the creative and production side.
Alex:So when I see people just, Just like manning the ship around that stuff and not carrying what cargo is being carried.
Alex:You know, they're essentially like, oh, we just take this ship from here to here and we sell it off.
Alex:I don't care if it's like pork loins or orange juice or whatever.
Alex:Right.
Alex:and I always, I I, I had a lot of trouble connecting with people that, that thought
Alex:about that, because for me it's always been about like, what are you making?
Alex:That's the thing, you know, everything
Brian:Yes.
Brian:Well, that's the same for me on the content side, right?
Brian:Because I was like, wait a second, like you're 19.
Brian:You built like an AI newsletter that you flipped.
Brian:Like I, I've been doing this, my whole life and like, you don't like,
Brian:so, but it's interesting because you can do that, but a lot of.
Brian:I mean, that's the, a lot of the economy really,
Alex:It, it is.
Alex:And I don't think everybody, I don't know.
Alex:I mean, I'm conflicted about it.
Alex:I don't think everybody has to, care so deeply about it that it, it overtakes their lives.
Alex:And I think people are allowed to care about whatever they want to care.
Alex:But I think it, you know, we've had it, was it this week with.
Alex:Amazon acquiring the creative, you know, gaining creative control over James Bond.
Alex:Right.
Alex:And, and how people are worried about that.
Alex:One of the last franchises that hasn't been, you know, kind of turned into a content machine, like, like Star Wars
Alex:and, and some of the stuff that's been coming out of that is, is how Amazon executive, or some Amazon executive
Alex:called like really pissed the, James Bond team off by calling it content.
Alex:You know, that's just like, oh, it's content.
Alex:She's like, I don't care.
Alex:yeah, that's always gonna be a tension for me.
Alex:And it's, it's interesting.
Alex:but when, when it comes back to newsletter, one thing I was curious about, are those folks over there,
Alex:like, are they worried about AI because we're, we're this close to having.
Alex:The inbox turned into something that just trumps up all your, I mean, you know, my, my Google, even Gemini is kind of trans,
Alex:you know, transcribing stuff for me and, and simplifying it and pushing stuff out.
Brian:I like, by the way, I like the apple and I'll answer that, but I, I want to get at Apple Intelligence a little bit.
Brian:Like, do you use, like their summations of text messages are like so hilariously awful.
Brian:Like they're
Alex:Yeah.
Brian:completely wrong.
Brian:I.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:Yeah.
Brian:Take this product back, like stop it.
Brian:dig Steve Jobs outta the earth.
Brian:He was probably
Brian:cremated.
Brian:He seems He's cremation guy, right.
Brian:But like, I dunno, reconstitute him somehow because like he has to put a stop to
Alex:So, so I'm an early adopter.
Alex:I always like, I'm using beta software and, and stuff like that.
Alex:And, and this time was no different.
Alex:but it's, it is the first Apple feature I turned off.
Alex:Your phone works much better.
Alex:You can turn it off, you can go into Apple Intelligence and just turn
Alex:all that stuff off and it's just like, it's made so much of it worse.
Alex:And, and, and,
Brian:It's hilarious.
Brian:It's so hilariously bad that I actually enjoy it.
Brian:It's like a hate listen.
Brian:It's like, you know, it's like all in for me, like, you know.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:And, and the thing is, I do a lot of driving and, and, you know, I have my text kind of being read out to me.
Alex:Texting is actually a good way for me to go back and forth when I'm driving.
Alex:and it will go, it'll, it'll read the summarized one.
Alex:It'll go like, you know, summarized from your wife, you know, cat threw up, TV not working.
Alex:And I'm like, that makes no sense.
Alex:What, you know, like,
Brian:So anyway, so the AI there, there, so is there concern about ai, you know, not, not really among this crowd exactly.
Brian:Although it was funny, they had one, like, you know, they have vendor pitches at at events, and the vendor.
Brian:I won't name it.
Brian:I mean, whatever, it doesn't really matter.
Brian:But like, they're basically, it's like you can get CPA under a dollar for like newsletter, subscribers.
Brian:They have this network of emails that they, a ai generate emails
Brian:and then will like basically promote your newsletter in there.
Brian:And I think one of the interesting aspects of this newsletter world is, I say this with, with a lot of love and respect.
Alex:I know you always seem to be like, uh,
Brian:Well, I don't wanna be, I don't wanna go to the cocktails and, well, this won't come out until tomorrow.
Brian:I get like, set
Alex:with total respect for the cigarette industry, I would like
Brian:it's like when someone says not to be racist, but you know, they're gonna say something racist.
Brian:no, with, with this, it's like there's a lot of multi-level marketing vibes in the newsletter world.
Alex:Oh, you don't
Brian:For instance, there's, there's, there's 3000 AI newsletters, not AI
Brian:generated, but newsletters about AI on one email platform that's just on bi.
Brian:Like we don't know how many there truly are.
Brian:we might need Doge to like be pointed at, at the, at the email newsletter world,
Alex:many of those are written with ai, you know?
Brian:Well, that's the thing.
Brian:It's like, again, with this information entrepreneur, space is how I'm trying to like, sort of nicely brand it, right?
Brian:Like it's kind of irrelevant, you know?
Brian:This is like part and parcel.
Brian:You ask me of a lot of people look for, to me it's adjacent to fire.
Brian:The financially independent, retire early sort of movement.
Brian:A lot of passive income world, you know, have a holding company.
Brian:Own a, a bunch of storage units or venue machines or whatever.
Brian:there's definitely that, that, there's definitely a tinge of that there.
Alex:the thing is, I mean, I, I wonder though, like, you know, it, it, it the same race as always, right?
Alex:Like people.
Alex:Get entrepreneurial in any space and they want to create more surface area, right?
Alex:Like in, in, in your, in this case, like, okay, let's get CPMs below a dollar and just, you know, content creation is
Brian:P-A-C-P-A, man.
Brian:They're, we're, we're just like, they're delivering you customers, for, for under a dollar.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:So, wow.
Alex:Okay.
Alex:and so as like the surface area becomes bigger, then what happens is that the consumer of these
Alex:things, like starts to, require product that fence that off, right?
Alex:Like that the mess of your inbox, you know, is going to just become, just
Brian:is the story of media, right?
Brian:Like I always compare it to like a children's soccer game, at least an American children's soccer game.
Brian:I'm sure in Europe their children are way more sophisticated when it comes to football.
Brian:but you know, a children's soccer game here, it's just like the ball goes to one part of the field or pitch.
Brian:I wanna be sensitive to
Alex:Mm-hmm.
Alex:Thank you.
Brian:And a clump of a clump of kids just follows around the ball.
Brian:And the ball moved to newsletters a few years back, and so the whole clump went following, following along with them.
Brian:And yeah, like I, I worry about that like, with, you know, the fact that this happens
Brian:all the time in media where everyone piles in creates an untenable situation.
Brian:And then technology companies, you know, come in, it's like daddy's home and they shut it down.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:Or they or they sell you a product to finally make it work.
Alex:You know?
Alex:I think
Brian:Or they shut it down and then they sell.
Brian:They sell like a version of
Alex:Oh, their, their own version.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:I, yeah, I mean it, but it's the, it is it is the thing with media and what happens is you want to increase your surface area.
Alex:So in newspapers, at some point you started seeing these newspaper with all these, you know, Sunday
Alex:edition and sports specials and whatever added into the newspaper.
Alex:And the thing looked like a phone book, you know?
Alex:Because they wanted to sell more ads, right?
Alex:But there was like a physical constraint to how much you could do there.
Alex:There was a physical constraint to how many ads you could fit in an hour of television.
Alex:Here everybody's seeing this as like unlimited skill, scalable, and the
Alex:only physical constraints is how much people will tolerate, you know?
Alex:and that always ends to a place where.
Alex:People no longer tolerate it, and it breaks the medium.
Alex:I, I think the newsletter Medium is, is, is ready to be broken, which is why like the substack thing of turning
Alex:itself into a platform and, you know, bypassing email is probably right.
Alex:You know, even though we don't like it
Brian:Wait, why do you think it's, it's, it's, right.
Brian:I mean, 'cause they're, they're, they're pivoting hard into video
Brian:and they, they want all kinds of, it's, it's well beyond email now.
Alex:because I think that like right now you're sending, You're sending everything into an uncontrolled inbox, right?
Alex:Which is essentially like this kind of uncontrolled, assorted feat.
Alex:So, which, which means, and, and more and more people are going to, you know, fight to, to be in that, in that,
Alex:in someone's inbox, which means that over time you're gonna have more and
Alex:more newsletters and more and more kind of things being sent to you.
Alex:which means you're either going to use tools to reduce them, or,
Alex:or the actual interface of the inbox is not gonna work anymore.
Alex:And it is a huge risk for somebody that runs a newsletter business to say like, we're completely dependent to,
Alex:you know What this entire, industry is doing to try to, you know, load
Alex:people's inboxes with more and more cheaper and cheaper newsletters.
Alex:And then it opens up an avenue for a startup or somebody like Google to say, Hey, we got a new
Alex:button that's called Erase all newsletters, or, here's our AI thing.
Alex:It matches up all your newsletter and just spits out the things
Alex:you want and, you know, it's completely unprotected for them.
Alex:So having people say like, well go to the app and we can control what's in the app.
Alex:We can build an algorithm, we can surface things that you want, maintain engagement.
Alex:I don't think it's gonna be smooth sailing for email.
Brian:Well, it's not smooth sailing for anything.
Brian:So like honestly, anyone who's been in, maybe not some of these newsletter hustlers, but for those
Brian:of us who have been on the seas for quite a while, we're used to,
Alex:Oh yeah, yeah,
Brian:swells, so it's not a problem.
Brian:but this is coming to all kinds of media.
Brian:I wanna talk about, the video game industry.
Brian:'cause some of our listeners I've gotten like, you're an interesting, exotic, character to, to a lot of our listeners.
Brian:'cause they don't, they don't quite know.
Brian:Like, can you explain to those who don't know?
Brian:What do you do, Alex?
Brian:What is like, what are, you're building this video game.
Brian:We've heard about this video game, right?
Brian:Like, what, what do you do?
Alex:what did I do?
Alex:Well, if it was up to Troy, I'd be just managing this podcast.
Alex:But in my, in
Alex:my outside of the podcast when I got some time, yeah, I run a, i, I launched a video game studio.
Alex:We're venture backed.
Alex:and there'll be some announcement around that, soon.
Alex:you know, we are, we're, we're building new intellectual property ip, based around video games.
Alex:The, my thesis is that video games is one of the better ways to launch, new ip, in this era.
Alex:You know, it's very expensive, to kind of make.
Alex:To build affinity around IP and stories, you know, in in, in movies or, or things like that.
Alex:And then, you know, in gaming, we think that there's more opportunity to, change the way.
Alex:things are built and, the budgets around them and, the tooling and stuff like that.
Alex:So we think there's a huge opportunity in part because the industry is actually in disarray.
Alex:Like the industry is actually going through a massive, correction phase.
Alex:where it grew for, for a decade.
Alex:It grew, you know, 10% every year.
Alex:and it grew a lot in, over the pandemic, of course.
Alex:But also like, it's the, the industries, industries become really wide and like with media, it's become, very
Alex:complicated and the stories kind of, the story means that, like, right now what we're seeing is like there's, I think
Alex:there's been like something like 34,000 layoffs across the last, two years.
Alex:It's not a gigantic industry, so it's hard.
Alex:You know, and certain places like mobile, there's actually less game releases
Alex:released and people are downloading less games than they were last year.
Alex:Which is, which is, which is interesting.
Brian:Yeah, so I, I had listened to, Peter Kafka had on his this podcast channels and he had on Matthew Ball,
Brian:who had a very ill-timed book about the Metaverse.
Brian:But anyway, he was, he is an analyst, in, in this space and was, I had no idea there were fewer people.
Brian:This is what he was calling.
Brian:Fewer people are playing.
Brian:Video games now than pre pandemic.
Brian:So there's actually fewer games being played, which, you know, a lot of
Brian:things normalize after the pandemic, but it's not a growth industry anymore.
Brian:And one of the things that I found, and I'd love your, like dissection of, of the industry, because there's
Brian:kind of like the, I guess his casual games is like mobile games, right?
Brian:That's an entire
Brian:world.
Brian:And that is losing out to like TikTok, like everything's losing out to TikTok.
Brian:It
Brian:seems like, like you only have so much
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:yeah.
Alex:I mean, I think if, you know, we talk about modality on this podcast a lot, and it's just like, it's
Alex:funny because I was talking to some mobile game people the other day and I said, you are on the toilet.
Alex:You're commuting or you're waiting for someone in your family to get ready, or something like that, right?
Alex:There's these, these moments that are like, I have two minutes
Alex:and I need to just distract myself because it's impossible.
Alex:Being bored and sitting with your own thoughts.
Alex:And, it's that type of, time that was, it was really hard.
Alex:And when you think about it, like, you know, okay, what media covers that?
Alex:in the past it was really hard.
Alex:Like, am I gonna sit down and watch the five?
Alex:Minute YouTube video, it's gonna take me a minute to find it.
Alex:I'm gonna watch it, know, starting to read an article or getting back into my ebook or whatever.
Alex:And, and the best kind of like 30 seconds to five minute way to spa spend time is
Alex:to be something like, you know, like a candy Crush or something like that, right?
Alex:Like, you could just go in, do something.
Alex:but TikTok has really stepped in and taken, Of a lot of that time and, it's, it's incredible.
Alex:Like, you know, I think adults are spending like a hundred million
Alex:hours, more hours on, daily, on short form video than they were last year.
Alex:It's like that, that growth is incredible.
Brian:And that comes from somewhere.
Brian:Like, it doesn't, it affects everyone,
Alex:it affects everyone.
Alex:But, but this, but this is why you need to really, I mean, and this is the kind of the challenge with, with.
Alex:The, the, the thing with TikTok is that it's eaten the, I have five sec, I have 30 seconds to five minutes
Alex:time, and it's also eaten to the, I I have two hours, you know what I mean?
Alex:Because, because it's essentially like, it's an infinite train that you can kind of keep kind of like gobbling, right?
Alex:And so it's, it's gonna hurt everyone, but it's definitely, definitely very much impacted, mobile gaming.
Alex:And mobile games.
Alex:You know, customer acquisition was always hard.
Alex:There was always a lot of competition.
Alex:but it's like, it's, it's, it's collapsing now.
Alex:And, and, and, you know, part of the challenge is that customer acquisition has become more expensive.
Alex:The apple changes have made that harder.
Alex:and then on top of that, across all segments, but in mobile specifically, people spend a lot of time, On the
Alex:same five games that they've been spending a lot of times on for years.
Alex:Right.
Alex:Like Candy Crush and all of these like take over a huge amount of like the attention space on the, on those
Brian:So there, there have been a ton of mobile games, right?
Brian:Like, and it's, it's fairly, I guess, low cost to develop a mobile game.
Brian:And one of the things, as you know, like one of my passions outside of this podcast is ad tech.
Brian:Like, I
Alex:Yes, I know.
Alex:Yeah.
Brian:I love, I
Brian:love ad
Alex:a tattoo.
Brian:I love it.
Brian:but like the ad tech world, there was always a separate ad tech world.
Brian:There was like, to me, like the New York ad Tech world, and then there was a West Coast ad tech world that
Brian:was all about mobile app downloads and like, they're basically this, you
Brian:know, using a lot of similar, but it was, they're totally different worlds.
Brian:They're different companies and, you know, app loving.
Brian:Has become this really fascinating company because hilariously named, so it belongs, in, in ad tech.
Brian:It's, it's, its stock got, you know, amazing runup in it and it
Brian:operated in the, in the app download for, it was both in casual games
Brian:and it was basically, you know, it was, it was.
Brian:Again, we talk about newsletters.
Brian:This is why I'm trying to connect them because like, I think they, there might be some similarities to
Brian:both in that, you know, AppLovin was, was both monetizing, casual games.
Brian:And then, it was also, it was monetizing them with downloads for other.
Brian:You know, games,
Brian:which is interesting.
Brian:And
Brian:I don't know if you saw, they had, they had a short, a short report came out on the targeting app 11, which,
Brian:you know, look, its stock has, is, is unbelievably expensive right now.
Brian:they, their shares are down 12% because, they found out not that anything sketchy would ever happen in Ad Tech.
Brian:And I have no idea if this is true, but that perhaps, app Loving was doing some stuff that wasn't totally, above board.
Alex:the side of video games I'm in, does not look, at, advertising supported
Alex:video games kindly because I think, you know, video games specifically are.
Alex:All about setting up systems of, of incentives for a player to do something, which hope hopefully is fun.
Alex:But when you're incentivized to work around advertising or microtransaction, it means that the games you create like
Alex:are just meant to psychologically, you know, get you to engage with, with that part of the, of the, of the business more.
Alex:Right.
Alex:And, uh.
Brian:is like arbitrage publishers, right?
Brian:Like I, I feel, I always felt like in publishing the arb, people were kind of looked at like, oh, come on.
Brian:Like, you're not starting from, I wanna create, you know, I'm creating content and I'm going to monetize it.
Brian:You're starting from like.
Brian:Kind of just trying to hack gear way and you're doing like arb, whether you're doing SEOA everywhere, you're
Brian:doing social arb, you know, it's ARB and a lot of newsletter is arb.
Brian:A lot of the people acquire, a lot acquire customers very cheaply through,
Brian:you know, the per the vendor who's giving the pre-lunch presentation.
Brian:thank you for the lunch.
Brian:to, to the vendor.
Brian:I had a Turkey and provolone.
Brian:It was, it was fine.
Brian:But,
Brian:you know, yeah, it's a good sandwich tops, 10 sandwich.
Brian:But they, you know, they're doing basic, you know, arbitrage.
Brian:They're buying low, and then they're, they're selling for a little higher and then rinse
Brian:and repeat.
Brian:It seems like a, this end of gaming is a little bit like that.
Alex:Yeah, it is.
Alex:I mean, I think a lot of revenue is, is it comes from, microtransactions, right?
Alex:So that's something it does have, it, it, it has cracked a code around
Alex:like, around getting people to transact with, with the games, right?
Alex:I think media, the rest of media wishes it had cracked that code.
Alex:the challenges are, okay, so you have advertising and kind of.
Alex:You know, pre, upsells that are happening within the game, all the games are free.
Alex:the challenge is like, discovery's really, really hard, right?
Alex:Because the app store is not a great discovery system.
Alex:So they end up paying like 10 to 15 times the amount, on, on customer acquisition and marketing that they do on the game.
Alex:So these games, you know, they kind of built really cheap, but they actually spent a lot of money to generate that.
Alex:And then.
Alex:You know, games like Monopoly Go and stuff like that are generating billions of dollars a year.
Alex:but there's maybe a handful, there's maybe 10 that kind of swamp the, play field.
Alex:And the rest is a lot of like smaller player that get a little bit of attention and that are getting more and
Alex:more swamped with ads, because they're trying to reach some sort of CPM.
Alex:so I'm sure that that's having an impact on like just the audiences.
Alex:I mean, audiences at some point get tired of it.
Alex:Like, you know, you talk to a lot of people say, I'm sick and tired of trying to play a game.
Alex:Like when I turn, when you open TikTok, you're in the content, you're enjoying yourself right away.
Alex:Right.
Alex:A lot of these games, you turn it on, it loads, you see an ad, you try to play, you see another ad, you know,
Alex:and there you are, you know, you have to get off the toilet, right?
Alex:And so it's, it's just, I think, become a, a a, a bad.
Alex:Product where they've just, it, the zone's been flooded.
Alex:The economics made very little sense.
Alex:It became really expensive to make these games the way the algorithms work meant that like, even if you were trying to
Alex:sell your game for like two bucks, it was probably gonna lose out to a game that's free but packed with ads, right?
Alex:It, it, it is just, I think it, some of that is that the, the marketplaces have been mismanaged, Which you don't see,
Alex:alternatively, like the, the PC gaming, is actually a bright spot that's happening.
Alex:It's still growing.
Alex:It's growing in China.
Alex:you think that PC gaming is a kind of a niche, thing, but there's,
Alex:you know, 300 million PCs sold every year or something like that.
Alex:And, and that.
Alex:marketplace, which is also supported by, you know, like buy at once as well as
Alex:microtransaction is pretty much entirely owned by, by, by something called Steam.
Alex:which is run by a company called Valve, right?
Alex:And in that case, what they've managed to do is like, create this
Alex:incredible ecosystem where they take 20 to 30% of every transaction fee.
Alex:but they actually are growing.
Alex:They actually have more, there's more games going to be released on PCs.
Alex:and part of that I think is just generally, I, I think the, the,
Alex:the, the quality of the product for consumer has been better.
Alex:So the, I think the iPhone, the, the mobile video games, I, I just think has been, have been mismanaged to the
Alex:point of becoming not compelling and just giving all the space to like four or five players who dominate the field.
Alex:meanwhile, you know, you look at pc, it's a much healthier ecosystem, which is why we're, we're focusing on pc, but
Alex:like
Brian:so you're focused on pc.
Brian:So let, let me ask you this, 'cause I see there's a genre, since you're not on X I'll tell you what's going on there too.
Brian:it's just like, you're not at the newsletter marketing, conferences either.
Brian:but on X there's like, there's a genre of, of X posts, tweets, whatever we're calling 'em
Brian:these days of.
Brian:It's like, so and so is over, you know?
Brian:And ai, AI's gonna kill whatever.
Brian:AI's gonna kill game developers.
Brian:That's like a,
Brian:a mini meme.
Brian:And you know, people refer to, I guess Google had demoed, I guess last August, Google Research had demoed,
Brian:being able to, I guess they created Doom Gameplay without a, a game engine.
Brian:And there's a, there's a genre of, of.
Brian:I guess it's like kind of the equivalent of, maybe I'm forcing this, it's kind of the equivalent of a lot of the newsletter
Brian:hustlers where there's like hustlers on, there's like developer hustlers
Brian:on X, like
Brian:they're trying to build like, you know, there were like one person living in Portugal who like has like
Brian:a holding company with seven different like apps and things that they've built, and they're like gin up.
Brian:You know, I guess like video games and if you, you just like search on it and you'll, you'll find, you'll find these
Brian:people out there that are, You could literally develop a whole game from scratch within a few months using ai.
Brian:At this point, AI can write the story of your game.
Brian:AI can generate all the code and features you need.
Brian:AI can generate UI assets and characters, but you can then turn into three, 3D muscles.
Brian:I don't even know what muscles, I guess that's models with basically no effort.
Brian:nobody's copy, nobody's copywriting these tweets
Alex:yeah.
Alex:it is the new iteration of the, of the crypto, you know, scene, right?
Alex:Like, yeah.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:It's a no effort.
Alex:No effort.
Alex:Lots of results.
Alex:look, the, the industry is de, I mean, the thing is AI is really good at, is coding so great, right?
Alex:Like, you know, it means that like smart people, are going to have more time to, to do other things
Alex:than, you know, troubleshoot their code or things like that.
Alex:But, What I find always funny is that a lot of these, kind of like, you know,
Alex:humanists or whatever you wanna call them who are like, you know, like, you know, fuck you.
Alex:Everyone that's creative, like, we figured it out.
Alex:We don't need you anymore.
Alex:And, you know, they still.
Alex:By the latest Kendrick album.
Alex:Like you could generate something with Suno AI that is perfectly terrible
Alex:and just listen to that and, and, but it's that, it's a mentality.
Alex:Like, it's funny actually, speaking of Suno ai, I have this quote from the CEO.
Alex:He said something that is telling, and I think that there's a, a lot of folks that are trying to.
Alex:Use AI to replace the human creativity, not just labor, but the actual creativity of it.
Alex:Or like downplaying the, the importance of creativity and taste and
Alex:everything that we make and, and why, why you need that to, to stand out.
Alex:And you'll need it more to stand out as more content gets created.
Alex:But he said, it's the, it's the Suno ai, music tech, that just generates songs, right?
Alex:Probably built on copyrighted music data.
Alex:But, you know, let's not get into that.
Alex:You know, if you mince the meat small enough, you can't tell what animal it's from.
Alex:He says it's not really enjoyable to make music now.
Alex:It takes a lot of time, it takes a lot of practice.
Alex:You need to get really good at an instrument or really good at a piece of production software.
Alex:I think the majority of the people don't enjoy the majority of time they spend making music.
Alex:And it's like,
Brian:Too much friction.
Brian:Too much friction in
Alex:yeah, too much friction
Brian:Learning how to play guitar.
Alex:Right, right.
Alex:And then you find out that like, you know, radio heads creep, like that iconic sound was like a mistake that
Alex:somebody and somebody heard it and, and that's how you create fucking art man.
Alex:And so, and so, I, I don't mind the idea of saying like, Hey, these things are going to save us time.
Alex:We're looking at ways things can save us time.
Alex:If an animator can can animate three frames instead of 12 and, and we can get support from technology.
Alex:That's what we do.
Alex:We work with computers, but there's this glee.
Alex:They have like this glee, like, where we not, okay, well then you, you know, you can, you can marry your robot wife and
Alex:listen to your AI generated music and, drink your, you know, whatever, protein powder and just leave us the fuck alone.
Alex:But,
Brian:I, I think what it, I think what it is, is like there's always this Venn diagram like of, of like
Brian:this sort of quote unquote art and then the hustlers, you know, like, and the hustlers tend to tend to be out of the
Brian:gates, like earliest and they're always, you know, wanting to, to, Basically to replace or to get, do away with
Brian:the part that they're not necessarily, that's not where their specialty lies.
Brian:You know, we all, we all rate very highly what, what, what we are good at, right?
Brian:Like, and if we come, you know, like I, I meet a lot of people here who are, who are way better at understanding
Brian:like infinitely better than understand growth dynamics and like how to.
Brian:Buy ads on Facebook and then, you know, convert them at like a, a, a low enough, you know, CAC to make
Brian:it worthwhile and get the payback periods down and all this stuff.
Brian:I'm like, wow.
Brian:I, I would not have time to, to, to write the newsletter.
Brian:But, you know, I mean, you know, I think in the end it, it's unique to have the blend, a little bit of the blend of
Brian:both, but everyone comes from somewhere and so you gotta come from one end.
Alex:I mean, I think the conversation's interesting.
Alex:Right now.
Alex:It's, it's like, You know, specifically going back to di thing, part of an issue that I see on the other side is that a
Alex:lot of people that work in games and in creative fields are completely shutting
Alex:themselves out from AI saying like, Nope, we're not using it, blah, blah, blah.
Alex:You know, putting fingers in their ears.
Alex:It's not happening.
Alex:You know, that's, that's also wrong.
Alex:but yeah, it's, it's is just either way I think, the gaming industry, is in for like.
Alex:An incredible, like next five years that are going to, see it fundamentally change loss of consolidation.
Alex:But if the audience is interested, do you think you wanna hear some interesting data?
Alex:Do you wanna mind if I rattle out some, like interesting numbers?
Brian:Yeah,
Alex:rattle.
Alex:Okay.
Alex:So, so here's the interesting thing.
Alex:The, the industry is huge, right?
Alex:So if you look at, Call of Duty, which full disclosure I worked on.
Alex:it's, it's lifetime revenue is, is estimated $45 billion.
Alex:45, it exceeds Marvel and all of these things.
Alex:That's Call of Duty.
Alex:And every year Call of Duty is the number one game released.
Alex:except on years when Grand Theft Dollar comes out, which is this year.
Alex:This year we expect Grand Theft dollar six to come out.
Alex:It.
Alex:They, you know, sources are saying they spend anything from
Alex:one to $3 billion on the game and they'll make it back in a weekend.
Alex:So, These, these media, you know, if you want to.
Alex:Consider those media companies, they are insanely huge and a lot of
Alex:the activity happens on a platform called Steam, which I talked about.
Alex:Steam is one of the few kind of American owned platforms that's growing in China.
Alex:70 million Chinese users, 200 million monthly active users, 22 million.
Alex:you know, like commercial activity happening on the platform.
Alex:Do you know how big Valve is
Brian:No,
Alex:300
Brian:I just learned it existed.
Alex:Right.
Alex:Okay.
Alex:Three, 300 people work at Valve.
Alex:All right.
Alex:300 people work at Valve.
Alex:and you would say, wow, that's crazy.
Alex:No, 350 people work at Valve and they generate $22 billion, in their ecosystem.
Alex:but that's not all.
Alex:Out of those 350 people, actually 250 people work on hardware that has nothing to do with the marketplace.
Alex:So a hundred people, work on that.
Alex:And so, so like the bunch of revenue per employee is crazy.
Alex:It's, it's privately owned.
Alex:and it is probably the me biggest like media platform.
Alex:In the world, like, you know, it's insane.
Alex:and so, and so, it's, it's crazy.
Alex:And on this platform, you have a space called the independent or indie space.
Alex:and, we've seen, you know, games by teams of five to 20 people.
Alex:they called less than $5 million generate over a hundred million dollars in revenue.
Brian:Okay, so that's kind of similar.
Brian:I mean that, well, the numbers are just like bigger, it seems like in
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:I mean, if, if, if, if, if you, if I mean, look, the, the numbers are bigger.
Alex:The mode is actually much higher.
Alex:Video games, no matter what anybody says, that you can prompt it and you can poop something out.
Alex:Video games are incredibly difficult to make and take anything from like 18 months to 10 years to complete.
Alex:Right.
Alex:They're very, they're very difficult.
Alex:A lot of time you're, you're, you're releasing a cultural product.
Alex:You know, that's five years away and you don't know where the
Alex:audience is gonna be there or not by the time you're out with it.
Alex:So it is a high risk, you know, a
Brian:So when is your, when is this game?
Brian:Can, can we say what it's about?
Brian:Like what
Alex:No, I mean, we're not announcing it yet.
Alex:We're gonna, we're gonna announce, some stuff about our, our venture backing and the plans for the studio later this year.
Alex:and the reason I'm not announcing it is because, it is really important to, keep some sort of, exclusivity
Alex:potential in case like one of the big, you know, video games actually has a pretty active, events.
Alex:Kind of business going around it.
Alex:There's the Game Awards and, and
Brian:Shit.
Brian:I thought you were gonna say espionage.
Brian:I was like, oh, this is gonna get exciting.
Alex:no, it's not.
Alex:It's less about that actually.
Alex:You'd be surprised.
Alex:People are incredibly open talking about things.
Alex:I think the currency is being able to announce a premiere.
Alex:So unlike movies, like people get excited for trailers and new games coming out, so, so the Game Awards,
Alex:for example, which is the video game, Oscars, is 60% game announcements.
Alex:It actually makes the show way better.
Alex:Imagine.
Alex:Imagine if you were watching the Oscars and they interrupted it for
Alex:like a world premiere of like Top Gun Maverick two coming this summer.
Alex:You know, like it would be
Brian:Wait, are those, are those paid?
Brian:Do they monetize
Alex:oh, uh, they are sometimes if the game is, a hot enough
Alex:property, they will, they will give the, you know, they will kind of.
Alex:You know, work around those things.
Alex:But, I think the game awards that was going a spot was going for a hundred thousand dollars.
Alex:So it's not Super Bowl, but it's, you know, it's, it's, it's not bad.
Alex:it's kind of a big deal.
Alex:But, so, so like,
Brian:Oh my God.
Brian:It's, it's, it's, it's started and owned by a journalist.
Brian:Good for him.
Brian:See kids.
Brian:You go into journalism.
Alex:Jeff Keeley.
Alex:he's like, he's kind of an in, in an, an incredible success story.
Alex:He's done, he's done a lot for the, for the industry.
Alex:And the game award is like a big deal now, you know?
Alex:So, Lots of things are changing.
Alex:industry's definitely not dying.
Alex:I mean, you know, call of Duty is still making billions of dollars.
Alex:This year's Call of Duty made billions of dollars.
Alex:steam, valve steam is profitable.
Alex:I think they're like, what is it, like 60 to $70 million per employee they're making.
Alex:but we're fighting in the attention eco economy.
Alex:And so, you know, distribution is still hard.
Alex:As with every product, marketing is hard, you know, and, and
Brian:don't think, you don't think, gay is becoming less like culturally,
Brian:I don't wanna say relevant, but like that it's not losing steam.
Brian:Like, because it was on like a tremendous, I. Steam, so to speak.
Brian:It, it was on a tremendous run.
Brian:Right.
Brian:And like we've discussed it on the podcast, there's a lot of people in the, the, the, the overall media world
Brian:who have long been like, yeah, I know, I know video games are massive and stuff like this, but at the same time,
Brian:like, you know, most of the people don't, don't, aren't gamers themselves.
Brian:They don't know adults who play games all the time or, or
Alex:It, it, it's a correction, right?
Alex:I mean, like I said, it's, it's such a big umbrella.
Alex:the, so, so what's happening, it's a correction and, and a maturation and like post covid, uh.
Alex:Adjustment.
Alex:Right?
Alex:So, you know, some, some more interesting data, like what's happening right now is that the top five franchises
Alex:on console capture, like, you know, 40 to 45% of all playtime, right?
Alex:and, you know, so if you take that and, and TikTok and all of these
Alex:things, like actually only 6.5% of people's attention is left to go to.
Alex:Genuinely new games today, right?
Alex:So a lot of it is like, it's being very successful, but there's not a lot of turnover.
Alex:You know, games like you have, you have World of Warcraft, Fortnite, et cetera.
Alex:These are games that are 10, 15, 25 years old, right?
Alex:Minecraft, right?
Brian:What was the last like, massive, like, like console game, like hit like, or PC game,
Brian:like massive,
Brian:not, not like a franchise, not like
Alex:It's hard to tell, right?
Alex:Like, the latest massive hit.
Alex:it's actually a great question.
Alex:I mean, Nintendo is very successful, right?
Alex:So if you want to go into that thing, Nintendo has sold like more copies of supermarket art than anything else.
Alex:It's doing really well.
Alex:on the pc, there have been, hits that are like.
Alex:You know, a few years old, like Valant, from the guys who did, league of Legends.
Alex:these types of games are, are big, big hits, or AP Apex Legends or, the finals.
Alex:but there, the, the, the majority of the time is still taken up by games that are.
Alex:Are pretty old at this stage because they've just been optimized to hack like Fortnite and Roblox and Minecraft.
Alex:it's kind of intense.
Alex:yeah, I mean, it's, it's going to be interesting, right?
Alex:Like, what I want to do is like, you know, we're gonna do games under $10 million in budget.
Alex:Hopefully our first game is like under 1 million, probably.
Alex:and try to make things that, you know, sell, like, you know, the problem is the industry spends money.
Alex:Players feel, you know, like they've got a lot of games and they spend 90% plus of their time on existing, franchises.
Alex:So we're trying to kind of break out of that a little bit.
Brian:Is that the risk averse?
Brian:Nature because I mean like Hollywood went there because it's just, it's, it's
Brian:when you spend a lot of money to make a movie, you, you don't want water world.
Brian:So like
Brian:why not just do another Indiana Jones?
Brian:I mean, how old is Harrison Ford now?
Brian:90. It's fine.
Brian:He can still run.
Alex:It's different to movies, right?
Alex:Because these things are turning into platforms.
Alex:So, so like Call of Duty came out with this mode called War Zone, which is where
Alex:a lot of people spend time and it's not a version that you need to buy every year.
Alex:It's just ongoing.
Alex:Grand Theft Auto has made most of its money from Grand Theft Auto online, where you.
Alex:This now, I don't know, like eight, 9-year-old game is still generating billions of dollars.
Alex:So, so unlike a move, like imagine if you didn't yet imagine if you made a
Alex:movie and if the movie's successful, you could turn it into a platform, right?
Alex:That's what video game allows you to do, which is, which is pretty unique, right?
Alex:and so.
Alex:It's, it's kind of become that.
Alex:But, and this is why actually a lot of studios were chasing, chasing those big hits, like what they call live service
Alex:games, which is, you know, games that are constantly running where people go in and spend money and they spent
Alex:billions and billions of dollars and few of them managed to break through.
Alex:So there's a lot of pullback in those investments now, because people are basically seeing, seeing that, you know.
Alex:They're kings of the hill right now.
Alex:They, they're very hard to dislodge.
Alex:We're gonna focus on other things.
Brian:Okay.
Brian:So final thing, 'cause I know you have a hard stop, which is our, our spinoff podcast that we're gonna eventually make.
Brian:we got some, we have some, some fan mail.
Brian:I wanted to, to run by you.
Alex:Oh great.
Brian:For commentary, because you're involved in it.
Alex:Oh boy.
Brian:it says The rebooting show on people versus algorithms are the only podcast I'm currently listening to.
Brian:PVA is like the Duke, the priest and the jester.
Brian:Brian, Troy, Alex respectively.
Alex:jester.
Brian:In a room together trying to make sense of this moment in history.
Brian:The three of you have reached a kind of peak moment, I think, and you are really putting out amazing stuff.
Brian:In the last few months, there has been more letting each other finish their thoughts.
Brian:All of you are essential voices in the podcast at this point, and it goes on with some very nice things.
Brian:But let's go back to the, the Duke, the priest.
Brian:And the gesture, because I read that, you know, and then I'm, I'm mentally, I'm mentally skipping
Brian:forward and I was, I was ready, I was ready to be tagged as the gesture.
Brian:Like you, you know, you have
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:I
Brian:you and Troy are very impressed with, so I'm like, look, I just wanna fit
Brian:in.
Brian:But then you, you were the je Where was I?
Brian:The Duke?
Alex:I mean to Duke, what does that mean
Brian:I don't know.
Brian:I'll take it.
Brian:I'll take it.
Alex:I mean, it puts like, you know, nobility, the priest.
Alex:Yeah.
Alex:I mean, Troy being the priest makes sense.
Alex:You know, he's just constantly pontificating
Alex:jester.
Alex:Sure.
Alex:I mean, honestly, like, what the audience should know is that I know very little about.
Alex:What's being talked about sometimes, you know, and, if you see a lot of conversation on our little WhatsApp
Alex:group where Troy and Brian are talking, they'll mention names and they're like, who the hell is that?
Alex:And they go, well, that's the owner of like the largest media group in Germany.
Alex:And I'm like, I, I don't know.
Alex:So I do come across like a clown I think, much of the time because this is not my, my environment,
Alex:but I
Brian:I wanted to talk about video games today.
Brian:I wanted
Alex:thank you.
Brian:this, this, this, gesture
Brian:slur.
Brian:I, I have a very quick, good product.
Brian:I'm in an area of Austin I've never been before.
Brian:It's, I think it's pronounced Mueller, like Mueller Park, the, it was where the old airport was.
Brian:out here, there, the airport.
Brian:It was the Robert Mueller Municipal Airport and they redeveloped this thing.
Brian:It's a 700 acre community and it's like a planned community.
Brian:It's like that sunshine, whatever, sunshine celebration Florida like.
Brian:And I think we need to build more of these things.
Brian:It's not necessarily to my taste.
Brian:They're very, it's very clean.
Brian:It's very nice.
Brian:There's like mixed use.
Brian:There's enough restaurants.
Brian:you have like.
Brian:Semi high density like condos, but then you can like graduate into like single family homes.
Brian:There's like, there's a school and it's all like brand new and spotless and I think we, I think we
Brian:probably need to build many more of these, these Mueller redevelopments.
Alex:oh man.
Alex:I'm so conflicted about that.
Alex:I think they, they built, they did something like that in San Francisco
Alex:on, on, on something they called China Basin, and it was built on a landfill.
Alex:And, and for the longest time I kind of started seeing all these modern buildings.
Alex:Going up and you know, that's where they have the basketball stadium and stuff like that.
Alex:And it was all planned.
Alex:It all felt like it was coming up at the same time.
Alex:And San Francisco is kind of this, you know, city with a lot of vibe and character and it felt out of place.
Alex:But over time, you know, I've seen families move there and it's nice and there's a park and people
Brian:There's a lot of parks.
Brian:It's very dog friendly.
Brian:It, and it, it has, it's all very planned.
Brian:I think the part that's sort of, having lived in New York City for a long time, I sort of, I'm, I'm
Brian:used to how, like crazy and chaotic and just like slapped together.
Brian:'cause New York is the most analog city I can think of.
Brian:Like in.
Alex:But it's the best city for that.
Alex:Like I think it's the best city in the
Brian:Right.
Brian:So that's why coming here, I'm like, this is very Truman show, and it's a little antiseptic.
Brian:but at the same time, you know, we need housing and I think we need more of
Alex:I mean, that's the thing.
Alex:We need housing.
Alex:I mean, it's easy to just like, you know,
Alex:But yeah.
Alex:All right.
Alex:Well thanks.
Alex:I hope this was useful.
Alex:I have, I can talk about video games for a long time,
Brian:I know, but you have to go.
Brian:You, you have to go make one.
Alex:Oh, it's so much work, man.
Alex:It's so much
Brian:But if people are interested, what are they gonna do?
Alex:well just to.
Alex:Folks know, I think if you're interested of getting into video games or buying
Alex:video games for your kids, I think there's two things that you can buy right now.
Alex:The one is called the Steam Deck.
Alex:It's a little portable device.
Alex:You can plug it into your tv and it connects to Steam that, that platform we've talked about.
Alex:So this means I have game that I now games that I downloaded 20 years ago, that I paid for 20 years ago on my steam deck.
Alex:Because, because it, it, it maintain, there's no other subscription or there no other service that I, that, that I'm.
Alex:That I've maintained that has like, you know, been able to, to provide that for me.
Alex:That's one thing.
Alex:It's essentially a little PC that you can carry around.
Alex:The second one is of course, the Nintendo Switch.
Alex:It's the one thing that we've been recommending anybody buy, if you're interested in video
Alex:games, Nintendo makes great video games, everybody can enjoy them.
Alex:but they just announced the the Switch two.
Alex:So I would hold off on that.
Alex:The switch two is going to be, this year is going to be big because it's likely that the.
Alex:Nintendo Switch two as well as Grand Theft Auto are both landing and it's
Alex:essentially like a thermonuclear bomb in a farmer's market.
Brian:But Nintendo switched too.
Brian:They, they're like cheaper than like Xbox and like PlayStation, right?
Alex:yeah, they're cheap.
Alex:I mean, I think that's the thing.
Alex:They basically, we reused old Android mid-range Android hardware
Alex:that they just shoved into a thing and they got it to do, do a lot.
Alex:So
Brian:Well, the Xbox became, I mean, they were trying to, like, the Xbox could do everything.
Brian:They were like, you, you can like, you know, reheat your pizza in
Alex:Yeah, that was a big mistake.
Alex:They, they, they lost focus, and I think, that was like a few generations ago.
Alex:They, they tried to turn it into a set box and completely lost the, the gaming market to PlayStation at the time.
Alex:and, and micro and Xbox is actually in, in, in trouble as one of the platforms that's doing the least well right now.
Brian:I feel bad for Microsoft.
Troy:That's it for this episode of people versus algorithms where each
Troy:week we uncover patterns shaping media culture and technology.
Troy:Big thanks as always to our producer, Vanja Arsenov.
Troy:She always makes us a little clearer and more understandable and we appreciate her very, very much.
Troy:If you're enjoying these conversations, we'd love for you to leave us a review.
Troy:It helps us get the word out and keeps our community growing.
Troy:Remember, you can find People vs.
Troy:Algorithms on Apple Podcasts, on Spotify, and now on YouTube.
Troy:Thanks for listening and we'll see you again next week.
Alex:Yeah.
Brian:Thank you, Alex.
Alex:All right.
Alex:Thank you.
Brian:Daddy will be back next week and we'll get back
Brian:to The
Alex:the grand priest.
Brian:okay.